In recent weeks, Camden Chat writers have delved into the anticipated performances of the Orioles’ roster regulars.
As we wrap up this series in the coming week, we’ll analyze what it would take for players to surpass projections or falter below them, and we’ll engage readers in the discussion for each player.
Spring training often brings unwelcome surprises, such as the recent revelation of Kyle Bradish’s UCL sprain and PRP injection, putting a damper on post-Corbin Burnes acquisition excitement for Orioles fans. This setback complicates predictions for Bradish’s upcoming season, despite his demonstrated ability to maintain a sub-3 ERA over a full season.
Looking back at Bradish’s strong performance in the latter half of 2022, where he significantly improved his ERA post-All-Star break, it’s evident that he possesses a higher potential than merely a back-end rotation pitcher.
However, projections, like those from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, typically don’t foresee starting pitchers with sub-3 ERAs, with exceptions like Jacob deGrom, who’s sidelined due to injury. Even established pitchers like Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole are projected above 3.00. Bradish’s projected 3.71 ERA should be taken with a grain of salt, especially considering his injury and the fluctuating nature of pitching performances.
There’s a case for both exceeding and falling short of this projection. Bradish could emulate other pitchers who’ve had one-off stellar seasons only to regress the following year. Conversely, he could maintain or improve upon his form from last season, potentially outperforming expectations. Orioles fans are understandably eager for Bradish’s return to the mound, more concerned about his availability than his performance metrics.
As we ponder Bradish’s future, let’s not forget the unpredictable nature of baseball and the potential for both surprises and disappointments in the season ahead.
