GM Steve Yzerman is now sitting on one of the most complex trade files of the offseason after Dylan Larkin requested out of Detroit.
The ask is going to be high. In 74 games this season, Larkin recorded nine game-winning goals, 34 goals, and 67 points. He still has four years left on his contract and a $8.7 million cap hit.
You aren’t trading for a rental. You’re committing to a 29-year-old franchise center through his early thirties, and the price tag shows that.
The no-trade clause Larkin has immediately reduces the number of options. He gets to decide where he goes. Because he can’t simply start a bidding war with ten teams, Yzerman is already in a tough position. He collaborates with anyone Larkin finds acceptable.
The trade therefore costs more about leverage and less about intrinsic market worth. The teams Larkin approves of are often win-now teams with few surplus prospects, and Yzerman needs a return that can genuinely hasten a rebuild.
What does a realistic return actually look like?
The reason Detroit cannot simply accept draft selections in exchange for Larkin.
With 92 points, Detroit placed 16th overall and had a record of 41-31-10. The Red Wings conceded 258 goals this season, which is the second-worst among teams of playoff quality.
The squad has vacancies. Yzerman requires NHL-ready guys in the middle, not a plethora of second-round picks and lottery expectations five years in the future.
A first-round draft pick must be the cornerstone of any deal, period. The discussion would not go very far without one. Imagine buying a house: the down payment is the pick. The mortgage is covered by everything else.
Any reasonable return must include at least one roster-ready player in his early to mid-twenties with top-six potential, in addition to the draft pick. Given Detroit’s depth problems up the middle, a young center would be a perfect fit.
The Red Wings should also take into account how Larkin’s departure will affect the locker room. He serves as the captain. Everything that returns must justify the cost of the tale, not simply the cap arithmetic.
Although Yzerman has established a reputation as a calm operator, patience will only be useful in this case if the ideal package quickly materializes. As contending teams make their own offseason preparations, the longer this drags into the summer, the less leverage Detroit will have.
The Red Wings’ worst-case scenario is being forced into a subpar comeback because Larkin’s window of acceptable places is closing.
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