How will the Chicago Cubs starting rotation appear on Opening Day, given that a number of free agents are still pending signings?
Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are still unsigned. Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks, two young guns, want to leave their imprint. Since spring training doesn’t start for another two weeks, there is still a lot of uncertainty. But the Chicago Cubs starting lineup is beginning to come together.
The rotation will undoubtedly change if the Cubs are able to sign one of the top-end free agents still available. A strong 1-2 punch might be created if Justin Steele were paired with someone like Snell or Montgomery. Nevertheless, it is less likely that they will prioritize either of these starters above trying to re-sign Cody Bellinger. Would any money be left over for them? If they are hoping to make the playoffs, they are more likely to target a top-of-the-rotation arm at the trade deadline.
It is now more likely than not that the Cubs will begin the season exactly as they concluded. They do have Assad and Wicks in their arsenal of excellent young weapons. Caleb Kilian and Ben Brown might be important starters in 2024, but they might not be.
Brown and Kilian may play important roles in a deal given their engagement in the trade sector. The most accurate prediction is that Wrigley’s greatest team will include some youth when they play the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers to start the season.
Chicago Cubs’ anticipated rotation at launch
The First Five
Given all of these factors, here is my best guess on what the starting rotation will look like in late March:
- Justin Steele
- Jameson Taillon
- Shota Imanaga
- Jordan Wicks
- Javier Assad
Justin Steele
Justin Steele is still a top-of-the-line starter who could make another run at the Cy Young Award this season. Steele finished fifth in Cy Young voting last season after putting up the best season of his career. The southpaw led the Cubs in wins, going 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA. Steele threw a career-high 173 1/3 innings, striking out a career-best 176 and walking 36. He also earned his first All-Star Game bid. He enters this season as Chicago’s projected Opening Day starter.
Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon has to be more consistent for the Cubs to be successful. Last season was a classic Jekyll and Hyde season for Taillon. He began the year going 2-6 for the first three months, never working more than six innings in any start. When the calendar turned to July, Taillon proved he could be a top-three starter. Taillon went 6-4 the rest of the way, allowing more than three earned runs only four times in 16 starts. If he can find this rhythm for the full 2024 season, Taillon will be an innings eater for the Cubs.
Shota Imanaga
Many have characterized Shota Imanaga as a very controlled two-pitch lefty. If the Cubs add another player for the rotation, the 30-year-old, who was signed in the offseason, could be the team’s third or second starter. During last spring’s World Baseball Classic, Imanaga was the winning pitcher for Japan against the United States. He has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.118 WHIP in the NPB (Japanese league). He ought to be able to handle the increase in competition this season, based on these figures.
Jordan Wicks
In last year’s seven September starts, Jordan Wicks showed he was ready for the majors. Although he never made it past the seventh inning in any of his starts, Wicks only gave up more than three runs only once. He kept the offense in all games and was a spark for a team that needed innings due to a depleted rotation with injuries to other starters. Although not the top prospect in their system, Wicks has shown the Cubs he is worth another look this spring.
Javier Assad
Javier Assad was another young arm who impressed in his limited action last season. The Mexican-born righty vacillated between the rotation and the bullpen but proved valuable in both roles. As a starter, he lasted more than six innings just three times in ten starts. To maintain his place in the rotation, this will have to improve. But the outlook is good for this 26-year-old, as he has proven that he has the makeup and pitch repertoire to be a part of a winning team. His 3.05 ERA over all of 2023 shows he can get outs and keep his opponents off of the scoreboard.
Will They Hold Up?
As previously said, there is little chance that these five will remain unchanged in September. While Jed Hoyer and company may decide to wait to trade away prospects in order to assess how the team performs during the season, a reliable starter is undoubtedly on their wish list. Half of the Cubs’ first 10 series against playoff clubs from the previous season make for a tough opening month of the season. If the team starts slowly, supporters shouldn’t give up. Chicago should focus on strengthening its starting rotation in order to have a successful season and a chance to go deep into October.
