He has more years left on his contract than he scored points last season!
You probably expected a couple of changes here and there as General Manager Kyle Dubas continues to reorganize the team if you’ve been following the Pittsburgh Penguins’ offseason. Perhaps a trade, or perhaps a depth signing. The bomb that landed on Thursday morning was something you absolutely did not anticipate; it was a contract so perplexing that half the hockey world believed it was a fake account announcing it. Do you remember the time when “Perguins” on Twitter would announce fake blockbusters with fictitious accounts? Indeed, several people had to check this one three times.
But no, it was real. The Penguins have officially re-signed restricted free agent forward Ville Koivunen to a eight-year, $32 million contract extension with an average yearly value of $4 million through the 2033-34 season. For a player who has played in fewer than 50 NHL games and has just two goals at the top level, that is a max-term contract.
Let that sink in for a minute.
A Big Wager on an Untested Item
The hockey world is buzzing because of how brazen this agreement is. A 23-year-old native of Oulu, Finland, Koivunen was originally chosen by the Carolina Hurricanes with the 51st overall pick in the 2021 draft. He arrived in Pittsburgh as part of the deal for Jake Guentzel in March 2024. Since joining the company, he has primarily divided his time between the AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and the NHL.
His NHL statistics are modest, to say the least. Last season, Koivunen only managed to score two goals and provide five assists in 39 games with Pittsburgh. He has 14 points, including 12 assists and two goals, in 47 games over the course of his NHL career. He missed all of the Penguins’ first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Philadelphia Flyers. He went without a point in his last nine NHL games of the campaign.
His production in the minor leagues, however, paints a different picture. Last season, Koivunen was outstanding in the AHL, collecting 41 points in only 34 Wilkes-Barre/Scranton games. He led the club in assists and had the best points-per-game average on the squad. He was awarded AHL Player of the Month in February and earned a position on the AHL All-Rookie Team. He has 98 points in 109 AHL games during his career. That is quite remarkable.
However, an eight-year, $32 million commitment is not typically made on the basis of excellent AHL statistics and two NHL goals. Dubas is effectively betting the house that Koivunen can close the divide, which is one of the biggest chasms in professional hockey between NHL production and AHL stardom. One of the recurring observations about Koivunen’s NHL tenure is that he always appeared to be half a second too slow in getting his shot off, which resulted in blocked or deflected attempts despite often finding himself in high-quality scoring opportunities. It’s an open question whether that’s a correctable timing problem or a fundamental limitation at the NHL level, and it’s one that now costs $32 million.
What This Implies for the Penguins in the Future.
The contract is particularly perplexing when you consider the larger context of the Penguins’ position as a franchise. Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby are all in the latter stages of their storied careers. Beyond the 2029-30 season, no other player on the squad is under contract. Dubas, however, has decided to make Koivunen the contract with the longest term on the books, securing him until 2034. Although the on-ice data at the NHL level has not yet fully supported this view, it is a clear indicator that the front office regards Koivunen as a crucial part of Pittsburgh’s future plans.
Dubas may make an argument in his favor, and it is focused on the salary cap trend. The cap is rising quickly, anticipated to reach $113 million next season and projected to approach $120 million and higher in the following years. If Koivunen matures into even a middle-six contributor, a $4 million cap charge that appears to be a lot today may seem like a steal in four or five years. He actually had some very good underlying advanced metrics from last year, placing among the top forwards in the league in expected goal share, shot attempt share, and scoring chance share. The box score just didn’t show the output.
Still, the urgency of making this commitment right now is the part that has people scratching their heads. There was no rival offer sheet forcing Dubas’s hand. As a restricted free agent, Koivunen had limited leverage. The Penguins could have signed him to a shorter bridge deal, let him prove himself at the NHL level, and then committed long-term with far more information. Instead, Dubas went all in.
Whether this turns out to be a stroke of genius or a cautionary tale will take years to determine. But one thing is certain: Kyle Dubas is not afraid to make bold moves, and the hockey world will be watching very closely to see if Ville Koivunen can turn elite potential into elite results before that $32 million contract starts to look like one of the most lopsided bets in recent NHL history.
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